Critical Politics – Lone Wolf Films

Is the National Party’s latest online advert deliberately designed to provoke a backlash from liberal opponents? And is National trying to feed the fire of a growing culture war in New Zealand? It’s seems so, and the party’s desired result is being achieved.

The National Party’s teal-coloured boozer character.

The taxpayer-funded 30-second video was launched on social media on Wednesday. You can see the ad about KiwiBuild here on Twitter: They’re all sizzle, no sausage. So far, it’s had 48,800 views on this single tweet.

The piece of advertising propaganda was immediately attacked by opponents as being sexist, particularly because it incorporated some backward gender stereotypes, with a young woman being lectured to about the failures of KiwiBuild by a young man being condescending. Some labelled it “man-splaining”.

Most prominently, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern correctly pointed out that the ads looked like they came from the 1970s, referring to their backward nature. But she was careful not to take too much of the bait, saying “I think if people see the ad they can make their own judgement on it”.

Others have been readier to express condemnation and even outrage. For example, the Minister of Women’s Affairs, Julie-Anne Genter attacked it as a portrayal of a gullible woman being mansplained to by two patronising males.

Plenty of other commentators have condemned the ad – today the Herald’s Damien Venuto wrote about how the woman in the ad was “the literal embodiment of every dated blonde joke ever told” – see: The mistake National keeps making in its terrible ads. He warns the party that they are stepping “into a giant advertising turd by belittling a large portion of the voting public: namely women.”

Venuto predicts that the ads will backfire, giving Labour an electoral advantage: “These ads reinforce the notion that National is the old, rich party, looking to maintain the power dynamics that have long existed in New Zealand society. If anything, it gives Labour further impetus to reinvigorate the smart unifying message delivered in its previous election campaign.”

There has been widespread criticism. Linda Clark tweeted sarcastically, “Policy is complicated. I needed a man to help me understand it”. Another posted: “I am actually in furious tears over how sexist that National ad is. Blatantly, explicitly, intentionally sexist. How are we meant to move away from a culture of violence towards women when our political rhetoric expressly permits this?” – see: National Party’s KiwiBuild attack ad comes under fire as sexist and incorrect.

But was all this negative reaction actually exactly what the National Party was seeking? Commentator Danyl Mclauchlan admits that it might be a “grand conspiracy theory”, but that this is “exactly what they wanted to happen”. He wrote an article yesterday arguing “Progressives are actually the primary target for this ad and it is designed to offend them. Offense and controversy makes things newsworthy and earns you coverage in the mainstream media, thus potentially reaching a far greater number of viewers” – see: Notes towards a grand unified theory of the terrible National Party sausage ad.

Quite clearly the strategy has worked, with National’s ad gaining huge amounts of media coverage. In this regard, Mclauchlan argues that it’s a clever attack advertising strategy, which has some parallels with the operating style of the US President: “This is Trump’s great innovation in political marketing: you don’t need to pay for advertising you just repeatedly outrage progressives, especially those who work in the media, and they’ll give you all the free coverage you could hope for.”

Mclauchlan concludes: “Presumably there will be more: maybe the next shocking thing will be the next National Party ad, giving online progressives the chance to spend the whole year furiously amplifying National’s talking points.”

Could National’s strategy actually therefore be primarily designed – not just to get more attention, as Mclaughlan argues – but also to push the party’s liberal opponents into furthering their reputation as being obsessed by being “politically correct” or “woke”?

This is what I argued this morning on Newstalk ZB, saying “Most supporters of National will just see this ad and think ‘oh National is criticising KiwiBuild’, whereas National’s opponents read much more into it, they’ve seen it and been provoked by it and fallen into the trap” – see: People outraged over ‘sexist’ National attack ad have ‘fallen into trap’.

Essentially National’s strategy is a highly cynical attempt at a type of “reverse dog whistle politics” – because their own base and the voters they are trying to win over don’t pick up on any underlying offensiveness of the advertisement, but opponents do and they react accordingly. As I explain on Newstalk ZB, “Many others fell into the trap, gave it publicity and called it out and for a lot of New Zealanders they would have seen the ad and thought it just seems like a silly ad and thought the complaints about it… were a bit over the top.”

Therefore, a “cringe-worthy and clumsy” ad manages to feed into, and thrive off, the growing culture wars in New Zealand. Because the context in which National has launched this ad is one of 1) heightened sensitivity towards social justice, sexism, and gender politics, and 2) a reaction against such “woke” politics, with a lot of frustration and abhorrence at social justice progressives and their outrage.

Hence, National Party deputy leader, Paula Bennett has been able to come out and defend the ads, strongly positioning her party as in opposition to “outrage culture”. She has been reported as saying that “it’s easy to find offence if you’re looking for it”, and people need to “lighten up”.

On RNZ, Bennett “was asked if she thought young, blonde women need government policy explained to them by men” and she responded: “Oh, no more than fat brown ones or any other male that I might know or anyone else. It’s got nothing to do with gender it’s got nothing to do with hair colour it’s got nothing to do with any of that sort of thing” – see: Paula Bennett defends ‘no sausage’ mansplaining ad on KiwiBuild.

This article also points out that National’s male MPs were being put under pressure in Parliament and by the media, essentially being quizzed as to whether they are sexist and whether they “mansplained”. National was probably quite happy about this narrative of their MPs being under attack.

And if they were any doubt that this “woke-provoking” strategy was being used, then it’s worth noting that National’s pollster David Farrar blogged to say: “National will be delighted that woke activists on Twitter are so stupid they managed to get all this free publicity for the advertisement” – see: Woke activists fall into trap.

Newstalk ZB’s political editor Barry Soper has also viewed National’s ad as being designed to provoke a strong reaction from opponents: “Today it’s the talk of the town, mainly because these days everyone’s so politically sensitive, careful about what they say for fear of causing offence and National knows it. Which is why the ad’s had the impact it has” – see: National’s Kiwibuild ad the talk of the town. On National’s strategy, Soper says “It’s brilliant and it’s had the desired effect: getting everyone fired up and the public talking.”

Also at Newstalk ZB, Heather du Plessis-Allan has come out strongly against the ad, saying “it’s a clever ad. But it’s disappointing” – see: Make no mistake, National’s BBQ attack ad is sexist.

Not only does du Plessis-Allan draw attention to the backward gender stereotypes in the ad and the “mansplaining”, but also to the apparent use of sausages in the ad as a putdown of the Labour Party and Jacinda Ardern: “The sausage is a phallic symbol FYI. If that sounds too conspiratorial to you, you’re being naive. This is an effective political ad and effective political ads almost always contain some sort of subtle dog-whistle. And very little in such an ad is an accident. The sausage is deliberate.”

Nonetheless, the impact seems to be working – with a backlash building against the advert complainants. The Herald reports the following readers’ comments with examples of people cheering on the ads: “PC gone mad”, “Bloody brilliant” and “People need to get over themselves” – see: ‘People need to get over themselves’: Swell of support for National’s ‘sexist’ BBQ ad.

Finally, National’s attack conjures up memories of other attack ads run by the party in the past, and the classic to watch is their 1975 Dancing Cossacks video.

MIL OSI – Source: Evening Report Arts and Media

February 15, 2019

Newsletter: New Zealand Politics Daily – February 15 2019

Newsletter: New Zealand Politics Daily – February 15 2019

Editor’s Note: Here below is a list of the main issues currently under discussion in New Zealand and links to media coverage.

The Beehive and Parliament Buildings.

Today’s content

China-NZ relations
Laura Walters (Newsroom): Warnings to Chinese tourists spark further questions
Katie Fitzgerald (Newshub): Chinese tourists backing out of trips to ‘back-stabbing’ New Zealand
Richard Harman: And now, Chinese tourists are cancelling
1News: Some Chinese travellers ‘dumping plans to travel to New Zealand’ amid strained relationship between Wellington and Beijing
Paul G Buchanan (RNZ): Trade vs security: New Zealand’s Huawei dilemma
The Press: Editorial – Fence-sitting over China has got harder
Herald: New Zealand’s tourism industry is facing backlash following rocky relationship with China
Liam Dann (Herald): Economy Hub: China rift – ‘They now feel they cannot trust us’
Audrey Young (Herald): Winston Peters rejects suggestions that NZ exporters are facing delays at Chinese ports
Bryce Edwards (Herald): Political Roundup: The Story of the Chinese blowback against New Zealand
Tom Pullar-Strecker (Stuff): NZTE sees nothing to prove China is taking revenge on exporters
Grant Bradley (Herald): Hong Kong Airlines pulls out of Auckland dealing blow to travel industry
John Anthony (Stuff): Hong Kong Airlines pulls out of New Zealand from May

National Party “sexist” advert
Danyl Mclauchlan (The Spinoff): Notes towards a grand unified theory of the terrible National Party sausage ad
Barry Soper (Herald): National’s Kiwibuild ad the talk of the town
RNZ: Paula Bennett defends ‘no sausage’ mansplaining ad on KiwiBuild
Herald: Government Ministers are slamming a National Party KiwiBuild attack ad as sexist
Newstalk ZB: National’s attack ad labelled as sexist
Stuff: National Party’s KiwiBuild attack ad comes under fire as sexist and incorrect
1News: Jacinda Ardern says National attack ad accused of ‘mansplaining’ is straight from ‘1970s era’
1News: Paula Bennett defends National’s ad attacking KiwiBuild – labelled ‘sexist’ by some – as ‘just a bit of humour’

KiwiBuild and housing
Jenna Lynch (Newshub): Revealed: No one entered KiwiBuild ballot for Waikato development
Jane Patterson (RNZ): Reserve Bank predicts KiwiBuild will crowd out private building, progress slowly
Deena Coster (Stuff): New Plymouth’s $23m KiwiBuild project a potential boon for local industry
BusinessDesk: KiwiBuild will crowd out as much as 75% of other home building: RBNZ
Simon Collins (Herald): New overseas teachers staying with school principal because of Auckland’s housing crisis
RNZ: Co-housing the key to closed property markets?
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Auckland house buyers increasingly confident prices won’t rise
Greg Ninness (Interest): House buying optimism hits five-and-a-half year high in ASB Housing Confidence Survey
Anne Gibson (Herald): Auckland’s median house price drops $20,000
Susan Edmunds (Stuff): Tenants feel Wellington rent crunch: ‘We were so devastated’
1News: Wellington rent prices ‘explode’, tenants paying $45 more than Auckland
Anne Gibson (Herald): Auckland’s median house price drops $20,000
Chloe Ranford (Stuff): RSE workers have little impact on rental market, report says

Polytechnic reform
Nikki Mandow (Newsroom): Timeline tight for critical skills education reform
John Gerritsen (RNZ): The devil is in the details for the new ‘mega-polytechnic’
George Heagney and Janine Rankin (Stuff): Polytech restructure could strengthen Palmerston North’s education role
Max Christoffersen (Stuff): Something’s rotten in the state of Wintec

Land tenure review abolished
Charlie Mitchell (Stuff): The slow, sorry end of tenure review
Charlie Mitchell (Stuff): The multimillion dollar public land sales scheme, tenure review, will be stopped
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Controversial tenure review leaves devastating legacy for South Island environment – researchers
Guy Williams (ODT): Differences on replacement for tenure review
RNZ: Eugenie Sage slams the selling of Crown land to farmers under tenure review
Derek Cheng (Herald): Tenure review axed to save high country landscapes and native habitat
1News: Govt to scrap controversial process for selling off South Island high country land
No Right Turn: The end of tenure review?

Parliament
Matthew Hooton (Herald): One poll not enough to unseat Simon Bridges
No Right Turn: “The most transparent government ever” – again
Edward Willis: Politics, select committees, cricket
David Farrar: Well done Trevor
David Farrar: A pox on both their houses
Phil Smith (RNZ): Two break-ups for Valentines – Parliament’s votes of confidence
RNZ: Select committee cancellation ‘partisan politics’ harming real people – submitter
1News: Winston Peters apologises to ‘all woodwork teachers’ after gibe at Gerry Brownlee’s expense
1News: Winston Peters’ defamation case has cost Kiwi taxpayers $80k, more expenses likely

Justice, corrections
1News: Government’s focus on community policy, organised crime ‘has nothing to do’ with drop in crimes in 2018 – criminologist
Chester Borrows (Stuff): Rethinking justice means we all must have our say
Anke Richter (The Spinoff): K Road naked protester: ‘I was feeling the violence towards all women’
RNZ: Fewer victims of crime last year, according to new Government data
1News: Victims of crime fell by 2.7 per cent last year
Anna Bracewell-Worrall (Newshub): Corrections ‘ripping off’ prisoners with expensive rental TVs
Melanie Earley (Stuff): Could youth mentoring be the key to keeping young people out of jail?
Newshub: The man taking on NZ’s shameful family violence rates

Reserve Bank and economy
Brian Fallow (Herald): Staff wanted, so where are the pay rises?
RNZ: New structure announced for Reserve Bank
Jenée Tibshraeny (Interest): Reducing the risk of the Governor ‘going feral’

Agriculture
Michael Morrah (Newshub): ‘Just abysmal’: Farmers furious at MPI’s ‘shambles’ response to M bovis
Gerard Hutching (Stuff): M bovis disease may have been in NZ in 2004: official report
Herald: MPI receives 188 submissions for dairy industry review

Health
The Listener – Editorial: Youth mental health is in crisis and NZ is failing to keep up
Kyro Selket (The Spinoff): Why fining parents for smoking in cars isn’t the answer
ODT: Editorial – Stubbing out smoking in cars
Herald: Mike King calls Waikato DHB ‘clowns’ after call for new coroner inquest into Nicky Stevens’ death
Marty Sharpe (Stuff): Was the unit that sterilises surgical equipment in Hawke’s Bay turned on?
RNZ: Junior doctors to ballot for fifth strike: ‘This campaign is not a flash in the pan’
Herald: Ombudsman launches twin investigations into care, deaths of intellectually disabled
Oliver Lewis (Stuff): Chief Ombudsman launches investigations into intellectual disability services

Transport
Emma Hatton (RNZ): Faulty airbags: ‘Some don’t see just how important it really is’
Thomas Coughlan (Newsroom): NZTA mulls law change as 17,300 cars remain unchecked
Todd Niall (Stuff): NZ Super Fund’s bid to build light rail in Auckland under Government review
RNZ: Wellington to get six-month e-scooter trial
Dileepa Fonseka (Stuff): ‘A bomb is going to be dropped on the footpath’, warns councillor as e-scooters get Wellington green light
Damian George (Stuff): Commuter chaos again in Wellington as 28 peak-hour bus services cancelled

Commercial fisheries, environment, conservation
Katie Fitzgerald (Newshub): Duncan Garner slams Stuart Nash over lack of cameras on fishing boats
Emma Dangerfield (Stuff): Amberley residents concerned about clam trawler operating metres from shore
Matt Brown (Stuff): Molesworth 1080 by-kill survey completed ‘within a month’
RNZ: Ban on cats under debate at Southland council meeting

Media
Tom Pullar-Strecker (Stuff): TVNZ searching for solution to boost its digital news, no comment on a Stuff purchase
Derek Cheng (Herald): TVNZ not ruling out buying Stuff or merging with Radio NZ
BusinessDesk: TVNZ has a keen interest in Stuff assets

Jordan Peterson
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Jordan Peterson weighs in on New Zealand gender topics, Julie-Anne Genter’s ‘old white men’ comments
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): New Zealand ‘woke left’ needs to understand Jordan Peterson’s mainstream support – Sean Plunket

Drugs, and law reform
Damien Venuto (Herald): Cannabis investors take care: Risks go with enticing returns
Herald: Editorial: Sallies find P a growing scourge in our society
1News: Current cannabis law ‘a deterrent to young people getting treatment’ for drug’s negative affects – expert
RNZ: Complex chemicals: The trouble with detecting synthetic drugs

Pike River Mine
RNZ: Pike River: Drift must be entirely accessible before police enter
Joanne Carroll (Stuff): Pike River re-entry: Police will not be among first into mine drift
RNZ: Assistant Police Commissioner says staff won’t enter mine yet

Other
Peter Dunne (Newsroom: Ditch the lolly jar and start listening
Sam Sachdeva (Newsroom): Agriculture no block to NZ-EU trade deal – Hogan
Simon Wilson (Herald): Taking the Salvation Army welfare challenge
Phil Pennington (RNZ): Quake-prone building owners fear ‘destruction by legislation’
Anne Gibson (Herald): SkyCity convention centre had Grenfell Tower-like cladding: $25m to remove
Levi Joule (Herald): Parade organisers missed the meaning of pride
No Right Turn: The law means nothing
1News: Auckland café’s Valentine’s Day blackboard message called offensive toward women
Leah Tebbutt (Herald): Calls to amend Prostitution Bylaw made at Rotorua committee meeting by New Zealand Prostitutes’ Collective
Winston Aldworth (Herald): NZ Cricket needs to front up on Scott Kuggeleijn
Jamie Wall (RNZ): NZ Cricket’s silence on Scott Kuggeleijn just another head in the sand
Newshub: Grant Robertson’s message to Aziz Al-Sa’afin on ‘gay-bashing’
Cherie Sivignon (Stuff): Nelson bush fire: PM announces extra $100,000 for mayoral relief fund
Melissa Nightingale (Herald): Colmar Brunton survey shows Kiwis care more about personal data safety
Lincoln Tan (Herald): Immigration NZ says sorry, assures mum little Zara won’t be deported
Bruce Munro (ODT): Global Insight: The Japan-NZ relationship
Tamsyn Parker (Herald): NZ banks slash branch numbers
Nikki Macdonald (Stuff): Axed Te Papa scientists granted temporary stay of execution

MIL OSI – Source: Evening Report Arts and Media

February 14, 2019

Bryce Edwards’ Political Roundup: The Story of the Chinese blowback against New Zealand

Political Roundup: The Story of the Chinese blowback against New Zealand

by Dr Bryce Edwards

This week might come to be seen as a turning point in New Zealand’s complex trading and political relations with China. Suddenly there is a very strong awareness of the deteriorating relations between the capitals of Wellington and Beijing. And although there is plenty of confusion and contention about the details, it’s clear that the Chinese Government has initiated a type of political blowback against New Zealand. This is based on what the Beijing government see as a betrayal by its formerly-close trading partner.

Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) and New Zealand’s former Prime Minister John Key (L) meet at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, 19 March 2014.

Three factors have been discussed this week as signalling that China has initiated a campaign of retaliation against New Zealand: 1) the sudden announcement that China is postponing the long-planned launch of tourism initiative in Wellington next week, 2) the mysterious turning back of an Air New Zealand flight to Shanghai in the weekend, and 3) the long-running inability of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to arrange a diplomatic visit to China.

The story about the postponement of the tourism launch was broken by Barry Soper on the frontpage of the Herald on Tuesday, explaining that: “The 2019 China-New Zealand Year of Tourism was meant to be launched with great fanfare at Wellington’s Te Papa museum next week, but that has been postponed by China” – see: China, New Zealand links sink to new low: PM Jacinda Ardern’s visit on hold, tourism project postponed.

In a second piece on Tuesday, Soper points out that the diplomatic explanations for the postponement aren’t credible: “the lame excuse from Wellington officials that there was a change of schedule. Given the Year was announced two years ago by the Key Government when the Chinese Premier visited here, Beijing’s had plenty of time to schedule it in” – see: NZ feeling the heat of the Chinese dragon.

This article also delves into the long-running difficulties that Ardern is having in getting an official visit agreed to by Beijing. Soper says: “The invitation for Jacinda Ardern to visit Beijing early this year’s been put on ice and all her talk at the end of last year about neither side being able to coordinate their diaries was baloney.”

In addition, Soper points to the third issue – the “turning back of the new Air New Zealand plane over the weekend, which was half way to Shanghai, because it wasn’t registered”. These three incidents illustrate, according to Soper that “New Zealand is feeling the heat of the Chinese dragon’s breath and if we’re not careful it could incinerate us.” He reports that “word from the Chinese capital is that retaliation is being worked on.”

And Soper points out that it’s easy to understand why the Chinese have become upset with New Zealand, after the Government here essentially decided late last year to ban the Chinese company Huawei from being involved in the new 5G telecommunications network.

I covered this at the time in my column, Huawei decision is the price of being in Five Eyes, pointing out that the decision was widely seen as fulfilling a US Government request to help it its geopolitical battle against China and Huawei. I predicted, “There is certainly going to be a cost for the ban… this country’s economic and diplomatic ties with the superpower of China will now be strained as a result.”

Of course, it wasn’t just the Huawei decision that soured relations with China – Wellington has been edging away from a close friendship with Beijing for a few years. This is all explained in a must-read column today by Victoria University of Wellington’s strategic studies specialist, Robert Ayson, who goes through the deterioration of the Wellington-Beijing relationship, saying that even under John Key “New Zealand was raising concerns about China’s behaviour in the South China Sea” and in return received some messages “suggesting that Wellington should stay quiet if it wanted an FTA upgrade” – see: New Zealand and China: time for clarity in a hall of mirrors.

According to Ayson, New Zealand’s criticisms of China have been increasing, especially with Ron Mark as Minister of Defence, and with the Government “calling out” China “for nefarious cyber activities”.

The Labour-led Government is still denying, or at least downplaying, the serious pushback that is now coming from Beijing. For the most recent examples of this, see Jo Moir’s news report, Winston Peters dismisses claims govt visits to China stalling.

The best quote in this story is from Shane Jones who declares: “I don’t think I’m one of these losery politicians that’s apparently not allowed to go to China, in fact I’m very popular with the Chinese – I think they see a kindred industrial spirit.” And David Parker is also reported as having visited China and seen no signs of trouble in the relationship.

But there’s clearly now a consensus amongst political commentators and journalists that the political blowback from China is real, many of who are complaining that the Prime Minister and Government are either failing to be upfront or else simply being delusional about the relationship.

Veteran political journalist Richard Harman reports that “the foreign affairs community” is certainly asking questions about China’s retaliation against New Zealand, and says diplomats and officials even see the incident with the Air New Zealand flight as evidence that the relationship has soured – see his column, Why was the AirNZ plane turned back?.

The suggestion is made that China is now cracking down “on technical infringements of its laws” when it comes to New Zealand exporters or the national carrier. In this regard he reports that Victoria University’s David Capie “suggested that what the incident showed was that New Zealand no longer had a special relationship with China. In other words, all things being equal previously, China would have found a way to let the plane land.”

China is prone to using this type of ambiguous retaliation, according to Newsroom’s Sam Sachdeva: “China has a history of operating with plausible deniability when it comes to meting out punishments” – see: NZ-China ‘scheduling issues‘ cause for concern.

Sachdeva reports, “One observer noted that blowback often begins with tourism numbers, moving onto international education before spreading to the wider trade and economic relationship – a script into which the postponement of the Year of Tourism launch sits uneasily.”

The problem, according to the New Zealand Herald, is that New Zealand appears to have chosen sides in the growing US-China rivalry – see the editorial: Has our govt antagonised China?. It points out that “it is not hard to see why China would have the impression this country is not the friend it used to be. The new Government’s ‘reset’ of policy towards the Pacific Islands is strongly tinged with support for the US and suspicion of China’s interests in the region.”

New Zealand observers in Beijing are also commenting on what’s going on. The most interesting is businessman David Mahon, who is interviewed by Liam Dann, saying that the decision to ban Huawei was “seen as a Five Eyes stitch up” and “a breach of trust” – see: NZ/China relationship: ‘We have a big problem’.

Mahon suggests that New Zealand had been building a much closer relationship with China for the last four decades, with the Chinese having huge respect for this country, but “In the last 12 months or so that has almost reversed. So there is now a very different view, almost an opposite view of New Zealand.”

There are real dangers of the China-NZ relationship getting much worse. Geopolitical and security analyst Paul Buchanan says that he’s now warning his clients against going to China due to risks to their safety as a result of what’s going on at the governmental level. On Newstalk ZB, Buchanan said “if you are a New Zealand resident in China, you need to be cognisant of the fact that there could be a knock on your door and you could be taken away on corruption charges or turpitude charges” – see: Kiwis warned over ‘hostage diplomacy’ from China.

Slowly but surely, the current government has engineered a major reorientation of foreign policy according to Audrey Young, who labels the Relationship with China a diplomatic mess. She complains that this “was never foreshadowed before the last election”.

The shift appears to lie with New Zealand First and Winston Peters: “Peters has been an irritant. A year ago Peters framed his Pacific Reset in terms of a response to counter China’s growing influence in the region, and he challenged China’s most important foreign policy strategy, the Belt and Road initiative. He ended the year with a speech in Washington, almost a love-letter to America, practically begging them to get more involved in the Pacific to counter China’s influence. A National Party Foreign Minister could not have made such a speech without being accused of wanting to rejoin Anzus.”

According to Young, the onus is now on the Government, and the Prime Minister, to fix the deterioration. They need to “to take a lot more care in preserving the relationship New Zealand had and to be less cavalier.”

Similarly, the Prime Minister needs to sort out her long-promised trip to Beijing, according to economics journalist Hamish Rutherford – see: Until Jacinda Ardern visits China, questions about the relationship will only deepen.

Rutherford discusses the on-again-off-again trip: “Ardern is left trotting out the line that this is a scheduling issue, and the only thing keeping her from an official visit is scheduling clashes. This has been the case for some time; journalists were asked to prepare for a trip in December, however this was abruptly cancelled. The longer the situation goes on, the more it appears that the excuse that the problems are caused by scheduling issues are simply a subtle diplomatic slap. For weeks there have been rumours that officials at the Chinese Embassy have warned the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade that the trip is not happening until other issues are resolved, something Mfat denies.”

Herald business editor Fran O’Sullivan is also calling for the Government to quickly fix the problems – see: Chinese relations must get back on track. Her suggestion, however, is that the “postponed” tourism event needs to be sorted out by the Minister of Tourism Kelvin Davis getting “on the first plane up to China to sort out the debacle”.

But perhaps it’s the Minister of Foreign Affairs that needs to be sorted out. Richard Harman suggests that this might already be happening: “The Prime Minister appeared yesterday to deliver a subtle message to Foreign Minister Winston Peters telling him, she, not him, ran foreign policy. This contrasts with her admission last year that she had not read a speech he gave in Washington directly criticising China and calling for more American involvement in the Pacific” – see: Ardern takes the lead on China.

Could Peters even be shifted on from his portfolio, in order to satisfy the Chinese? It seems unlikely, but that’s the hint that security specialist Robert Ayson is making when he says that fixing the NZ-China relations “may also mean a change in the pecking order within the politburo in Wellington.”

Ayson’s column, cited above, also has plenty of other suggestions for how the mess might be fixed – and these include providing the Chinese government with greater clarity about the Huawei decision, showing that New Zealand is not simply “a willing member of a new Cold War”, stop cosying up to the US, and pull back from Winston Peters’ anti-China Pacific Reset strategy.

Finally, last month Matthew Hooton wrote an important and prescient column about New Zealand’s changing relationship with China and US, and this is well worth reading as background for what is happening now – see: Is Jacinda Ardern on board with the Winston Peters Reset?.

MIL OSI – Source: Evening Report Arts and Media

February 14, 2019